Arkansas standout Darius Acuff Jr. is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury
See how the markets have adjusted to Acuff’s status
Our analysis breaks down Arkansas at Mizzou and offers the best bets
No. 20 Arkansas goes for the season series sweep and has a chance to spoil Missouri’s Senior Day today. Tip-off is set for 12 pm, ET (ESPN), in Columbia.
Arkansas beat Mizzou 94-86 on Feb. 21 and is a small road favorite today.
One potential issue: Star freshman Darius Acuff Jr. is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury and might not play until next week’s SEC Tournament.
Arkansas (22-8, 12-5 SEC) also has a chance to secure the No. 2 seed in next week’s SEC Tournament. Missouri (20-10, 10-7) is a bit farther back in the standings; its focus is on securing a signature win to improve its No. 60 RPI.
Our analysis breaks down the key trends, metrics and markets to provide the best bets for Arkansas at Mizzou on March 7.
Arkansas vs Missouri Best Bets
The margin between these two squads is razor-thin on paper, but the statistical profiles suggest a clear value side. Oddsmakers have installed Missouri as a narrow -1.5 point favorite, essentially viewing this as a coin flip at Mizzou Arena. However, recent form and offensive efficiency point toward the visitors.
The Spread: Arkansas -1.5 ($0.47 per contract at Kalshi)
At prediction site Kalshi, Arkansas -1.5 is trading at 47¢ (equivalent to a +106 odds, which is a better value than the sportsbooks. If you don’t already have an account at Kalshi, click “PREDICT” in the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code. (If you already use Kalshi, try out SBD’s Novig promo code or check out our full list of prediction markets.)
We like this market for a variety of reasons, even if Acuff is limited or doesn’t play.
Mizzou Arena presents a hostile environment, but the Razorbacks possess the offensive depth and rim protection to dictate terms. The headline narrative surrounds the status of Acuff Jr. (SEC-best 22.2 PPG). Worst-case, Arkansas has proven it has the weapons to compensate.
Trevon Brazile is coming off a career-high 28-point performance against Texas and anchors the defense with 1.62 blocks per game (4th in the SEC). His ability to alter shots at the rim will be crucial against Missouri’s Mark Mitchell (17.4 PPG), who relies heavily on interior scoring. Furthermore, freshman Meleek Thomas (14.9 PPG) has shown the capacity to shoulder the scoring load, stepping up with clutch plays in the previous matchup against the Tigers. Missouri has struggled against top-tier athleticism, holding a 2-4 record against Rank 1-25 opponents.
Prediction: We are laying the points and riding with the Razorbacks. Whether Acuff plays or the offense runs through Brazile and Thomas, Arkansas has the superior résumé and momentum to cover the small number at Kalshi, where a $20 investment would produce a $23 profit if the Hogs cover.
The Total: Over 161.5 (-110 at Bet365)
The total is set at a robust 161.5, yet the underlying metrics support a high-scoring affair. Remember, they combined for 180 points just a few weeks ago.
Missouri’s offensive scheme is predicated on spacing the floor for shooters like Jacob Crews, who is connecting on a blistering 45.5% of his three-point attempts, and Trent Pierce (40.2% from deep). This perimeter threat stretches defenses, creating driving lanes for Mitchell.
On the other end, Arkansas operates at a frantic pace, averaging 90.3 points per game in SEC play. The Razorbacks are highly efficient inside the arc, with Malique Ewin shooting 59.1% from the field. Neither team has demonstrated a desire to slow the tempo, and with Missouri allowing 74.8 points per game (and significantly more against elite offenses), the pace should remain elevated enough to clear this number.
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