CloseJames Olley is a senior soccer writer for ESPN.com. Read his archive here and follow him on Twitter: @JamesOlley.
Follow on X
The warning has already come from football's biggest clubs. "I cannot help feeling that speculation around transfers of individual players for hundreds of millions of pounds this summer seems to ignore the realities that face the sport," warned Manchester United executive vice-chairman Ed Woodward at a Fans' Forum event last month.
Barcelona president Josep Maria Bartomeu outlined what this new reality could look like. "This summer, there will be very little money in the transfer market," he said. "Clubs will have to do a lot of player exchanges to get deals done."
With all the various possible payment structures, contract clauses, intermediary fees and image rights, transfers involving just one player are often so remorselessly complex that throwing a second player into the mix usually proves a step too far. Consequently, even part-exchange deals -- player-plus-cash agreements -- remain rare. And the purest form, a straight player-for-player trade, is rarer still. Yet with money at a premium as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, exchanging players in cashless transactions has been mooted as the best way to navigate squad rebuilding in these unprecedented times.
- Stream ESPN FC TV daily and 30 for 30: Soccer Stories
- Swap deals we'd like to see: Kane for Bale+Jovic, Pogba for Dybala
Former Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger anticipated a surge in swap deals over two years ago, when completing the signing of Henrikh Mkhitaryan from United as Alexis Sanchez moved to Old Trafford in January 2018. The Frenchman, usually so prescient in his predictions, suggested convoluted contracts and an increasing willingness of players to run down their deals would lead to swaps becoming a more popular avenue for transfers.
As it turned out, the Sanchez/Mkhitaryan deal still stands today as the last significant swap in Premier League history. And instead of representing a template for clubs to follow this summer, it is a cautionary tale proving the old adage that two wrongs don't make a right.