March Madness may refer to college basketball’s postseason, but it would also be an accurate way to describe the professional tennis calendar. Masters 1000s are the second-highest level of tournaments on tour behind Grand Slams and there are 2 of them this month – back-to-back in Palm Springs, California and Miami, Florida. It’s the so-called “Sunshine Double.”
The first leg has come and gone, and on the women’s side in Indian Wells I nailed my 3-star best bet of Iga Swiatek at +275 to take the title. Now we are on to Miami, where last year I cashed Petra Kvitova at… wait for it… +10000!
What will I do for an encore in 2024? With main-draw competition beginning on Wednesday, it’s time to break down the odds and reveal my best bets for the Miami Open tennis tournament.
ATP Miami Open odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and available at time of publishing.
Carlos Alcaraz +160
Jannik Sinner +300
Daniil Medvedev +700
Alexander Zverev +1400
Andrey Rublev +2000
Alex de Minaur +2200
Stefanos Tsitsipas +2800
Casper Ruud +3300
Holger Rune +3300
Taylor Fritz +4000
Ben Shelton +4000
Hubert Hurkacz +4000
Tommy Paul +4000
Grigor Dimitrov +5000
ATP Miami Open 3-star best bet: Jannik Sinner (+300)
I backed Sinner as my 3-star best bet at the Australian Open and he delivered at +700 odds. Unfortunately, Indian Wells did not work out as well. That bet also looked good until Sinner’s hot streak (16-0 in 2024 and a 19-match winning streak) came to an end in the semifinals against Carlos Alcaraz. Despite that result, I’m getting right back on the bandwagon. The third-ranked Italian is still 19-1 in his last 20 matches and 29-2 in his last 31. He has made 3 trips to Miami in his career and his results are runner-up, quarterfinals and runner-up. Sinner is due for his first title at this tournament, and I think he will get the job done – regaining his unofficial status as the current best player in the world.
ATP Miami Open 2-star value play: Alex de Minaur (+2200)
Perhaps no ATP player outside of Sinner has been hotter than De Minaur in 2024. His 17-5 record includes 2 final appearances (title in Acapulco, runner-up in Rotterdam) and it has him up to No. 10 in the rankings. The 25-year-old Aussie lost in the fourth round of the Indian Wells Masters, but it should be noted that he led Alexander Zverev by a set and a break in that match. De Minaur has a nice draw in Zverev’s quarter, so he would not meet Alcaraz until the semifinals and Sinner until the title match.
ATP Miami Open 1-star value play: Taylor Fritz (+4000)
Yes, you might notice that all 3 of my picks on the men’s side are the same as they were in Indian Wells. Part of that is a coincidence – Sinner, De Minaur and Fritz are all in different sections of the draw. Part of that isn’t a coincidence – all of them are in great form. Fritz probably should have made it to the Indian Wells quarterfinals but lost to Holger Rune from match-point up. The 13th-ranked American is a former Indian Wells champion (2022) and there is no reason why he can’t complete the career Sunshine Double. Conditions in Miami are ideal for Fritz, who has a favorable draw (he would not face Sinner until the semis and Alcaraz until the final).
WTA Miami Open odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and available at time of publishing.
Iga Swiatek +175
Aryna Sabalenka +470
Elena Rybakina +600
Coco Gauff +850
Jessica Pegula +3400
Caroline Wozniacki +4200
Maria Sakkari +4200
Qinwen Zheng +4200
Jelena Ostapenko +4200
Anna Kalinskaya +4000
Elina Svitolina +5000
Naomi Osaka +5000
Marta Kostyuk +5000
Emma Navarro +5000
Linda Noskova +5000
WTA Miami Open 3-star best bet: Elena Rybakina (+600)
Swiatek was +275 to lift the trophy in Indian Wells. That was good enough value for me to bite, and I’m happy I did. At +175 in Miami? No thanks! Conditions in Miami are worse for Swiatek than they are in California, plus Rybakina – who is 3-1 lifetime in their head-to-head series – missed Indian Wells because of illness but will presumably be good to go for this tournament. So, no, I’m not backing Swiatek again. This time the value is on Rybakina. The world #4 is well-rested after not playing in Indian Wells and the relatively fast conditions near South Beach are great for her game. She made a run to the final last spring before falling to Kvitova. In her two 1000-point appearances this season, the Kazakh has reached the final in Doha and the quarterfinals in Dubai. Don’t be surprised if Rybakina’s first significant title of 2024 is on the horizon.
WTA Miami Open 2-star value play: Naomi Osaka (+5000)
Osaka is just now coming back from a year-long absence due to the birth of her first child. I have a feeling that the 26-year-old is going to all of a sudden win a big title – as opposed to slowly putting together building blocks of success before she wins one in more expected fashion. It would be very Osaka-like to unofficially announce her return to the tour with a bang. So far, her 2024 results have underwhelmed, which is why a triumph in Miami would satisfy the aforementioned requirement – and also why you can get her at +5000. That being said, results have been encouraging enough. She advanced to the quarterfinals in Doha and won two matches in Indian Wells. Confidence is starting to grow. In Miami, Osaka would not run into Swiatek until the semifinals and Rybakina until the final; the 4-time major winner may be able to capitalize.
WTA Miami Open 1-star value play: Victoria Azarenka (+10000)
Yes, after cashing a +10000 futures play on Kvitova last year in Miami, I’m going right back to the well – this time with Azarenka. Ironically, Azarenka is of a similar mold: a veteran well into her 30s (34) and a two-time Grand Slam champion. Like Kvitova in 2023, Azarenka is admittedly past her prime but still playing well. The Belarusian is ranked #32 in the world and has a first-round bye in Miami as the #27 seed. Unlike Kvitova prior to last season’s tournament, Azarenka already has a history of success in the 305. She won it in 2009, 2011 and 2016 and has reached at least the quarterfinals on two other occasions. Azarenka has a nice draw, as she would not face Rybakina until the semis and Swiatek until the final. All things considered, she is worth a shot at +10000.