The French Open quarterfinals are set
Rafael Nadal remains a substantial favorite
Does Karen Khachanov offer value at 28-1?
The usual suspects, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Roger Federer are once again among the final eight at a major. Nadal and Djokovic aren’t going to make you rich, and Federer isn’t exactly a clay court specialist.
While the usual suspects have mostly been flat, Karen Khachanov’s French Open odds were 80/1 at one point. Does he offer value now at 28/1?
Let’s look at the updated 2019 French Open odds below.
2019 French Open Odds
| Player | Odds to win the French Open Odds |
|---|---|
| Rafael Nadal | -140 |
| Novak Djokovic | +250 |
| Dominic Thiem | +700 |
| Roger Federer | +1200 |
| Stan Wawrinka | +1800 |
| Alexander Zverev | +2200 |
| Karen Khachanov | +2800 |
| Kei Nishikori | +5000 |
*Odds taken 06/03/19
Favorite: Rafael Nadal
It’s been a pretty easy first four matches for the 11-time champ, and there just is no real reason to believe he isn’t an incredibly tough out.
Nadal has the easier side of the draw, the old man side, and the chances of him playing on Sunday seem very strong.
Challenger: Novak Djokovic
While it has been cruise control for Djokovic early on, the 15-time major champ, and 2016 victor at Roland-Garros is on the young, talented, and dangerous side of the draw.
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He faces Alexander Zverev, and if he wins either Dominic Thiem or Khachanov, and after that would need to get by Nadal. Djokovic is an all-time great, but clay is the weakest of his surfaces.
Longshot: Karen Khachanov
The price is right, but is the timing? The recently turned 23-year-old needed four sets to beat Juan Martin Del Potro in the last round.
This is his furthest run in a major tournament, and he is playing perhaps the best tennis of his career. While the price is juicy, and it is impossible not to be impressed by the Russian’s play and think he has a bright future, Khachanov is almost a 3/1 underdog against Thiem, and then may need to beat Djokovic and Nadal too.
The Bet
Don’t fight city hall. Sure Nadal is 33-years-old, but his upcoming opponents are an outclassed Kei Nishikori, followed by either a 37-year-old Federer who doesn’t prefer clay, or 34-year-old Stan Wawrinka.
Nadal is likely to be in the final and at that point you can hedge if you want. This is what Nadal does, eat the juice and give yourself the best chance to cash.
Pick: Rafael Nadal (-140)