No. 5 seed Paula Badosa will meet No. 6 Maria Sakkari Friday in the Indian Wells Masters semifinals
Badosa leads their head-to-head 1-0, but Sakkari is having the better 2022 season so far
Read on as we break down the matchup and make a prediction
Even though they’re both in their mid-20s, this will only be the second time that Paula Badosa and Maria Sakkari meet on the WTA Tour.
Badosa, the defending champion, is the slight favorite.
Badosa vs Sakkari Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [5] Paula Badosa (ESP) | -0.5 (-135) | -130 | O 21.5 (-120) |
| [6] Maria Sakkari (GRE) | +0.5 (-105) | +105 | U 21.5 (-115) |
Odds as of March 17. See these BetMGM promo codes before you bet on these odds.
Neither player has lost a set coming into this semifinal. So something has to give.
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Badosa Beats Fernandez, Kudermetova
Badosa, who won the Indian Wells Masters back in October, had only played three matches since a good trip down to Australia to start the season. And she won just one of those three matches.
But everything clicked when she returned to Indian Wells. And she got through the crafty Leylah Fernandez and the powerful Veronika Kudermetova in her last two matches, both in straight sets.
In an hour and 23 minutes against Kudermetova, Badosa only faced one break point on her serve.
She broke the Russian three times in the 6-3, 6-2 victory.
But the statistic that should concern Sakkari is that Kudermetova won less than 30 percent of points on her second serve.
Sakkari’s first delivery is world-class; her second serve is attackable.
Badosa vs Sakkari Head-to-Head
Paula Badosa
VS
Maria Sakkari
| 24 (Nov. 14, 1997) | Age | 26 (July 24, 1995) |
| New York, NY | Birthplace | Athens, Greece |
| 5-11 | Height | 5-8 |
| 3 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 1 |
| No. 4 (Feb. 20, 2022) | Career High Ranking | No. 6 (Oct. 31, 2021) |
| No. 7 | Current Ranking | No. 6 |
| $3,926,030 | Career Prize Money | $6,009,493 |
| 13-4 | 2022 Won/Loss record | 15-4 |
| 1 | Career Head to Head | 0 |
Sakkari Efficient vs Rybakina
Elena Rybakina was a dangerous opponent for Sakkari in the quarterfinals, now that the 22-year-old from Kazakhstan has recovered from an early-season foot injury, and then a bout with COVID-19 she said knocked her flat in far more serious fashion than she had anticipated.
Rybakina had defeated Sakkari the only other time they met – in 2020 in St. Petersburg, just a few weeks before tennis shut down for five months because of the coronavirus.
But Rybakina was on a roll then. The stoppage stopped Rybakina’s momentum in its tracks, and she still doesn’t have it back.
Still, this has been a good week for her. And the 7-5, 6-4 victory was a good win for Sakkari.
Especially as she was down early – 1-4 in the first set.
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Badosa vs Sakkari Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | WTA Finals (RR) | Outdoor Hard | 7-6 (4), 6-4 | Badosa |
Different Styles, With Some Similarities
Both Badosa and Sakkari, who were way down the odds list before the tournament began, have big first serves. And they will look to do the most damage with that first strike.
Sakkari’s defense is a lot better. Badosa’s forehand is flatter and more explosive, while Sakkari has more safety and spin on her ball and has to push herself a little more to be aggressive.
She’s also arguably the fittest player on Tour. But given this will be a night match, fitness won’t come into play the way it might in the middle of the day in the desert.
One intangible: Badosa knows how to win this tournament. She also has another title this season. Sakkari has just one minor title (on clay in Rabat, Morocco nearly three years ago) on her resumé.
That’s the kind of thing that can make the difference deep into a big event like Indian Wells.
The Greek player is good at getting “where she should get to” in draws. But she’s not yet proven effective at closing things out and holding up a trophy and winning futures bets.
Their only meeting, last November in Guadalajara, was a good example of that. Both WTA Finals debutants were 1-0 in the round-robin portion after Badosa upset No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka, and Maria Sakkari beat a struggling Iga Swiatek.
A win in their first-ever encounter would just about clinch a semifinal spot.
And it was Badosa who won it (Sakkari ended up making it anyway). The stakes were high, and the Spaniard prevailed.
You’d expect that to be the case on Friday as well.
Best Bet: Badosa in Two Sets (+160)
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