Marseille hosts Lille in the seventh matchday of Ligue 1 on Saturday, September 10th, at 3 pm ET
The match is being played at the Stade Vélodrome in Marseille, France
Get the Marseille vs Lille picks, odds analysis, and betting prediction below
With no Premier League play this weekend, turn your eyes to Ligue 1 for Marseille vs Lille on Saturday afternoon. This encounter is gearing up to be a good one, between two of France’s most powerful sides in recent years.
Of course, Lille won the French league just two years and are now trying to better a tenth-place finish last season. Nonetheless, a draw away to Nantes and a 7-1 loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the first three games, did not set them off on the right foot. Les Dogues now face another massive test against Marseille at the Stade Vélodrome, which is a nightmare for any team to play at.
Conversely, Marseille will come into this match with the utmost respect for their opponents. In fact, Lille has actually beaten Marseille in two of their last three meetings in Ligue 1 play. While both of those matches were played at the Stade Pierre Mauroy, it will still make Marseille wary of their visitors.
Marseille vs Lille Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Marseille | -102 |
| Lille | +280 |
| Draw | +250 |
Odds as of September 8th at Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook bonus code to bet on this Ligue 1 match
All in all, Marseille are the favorites for this match with -102 moneyline odds. Igor Tudor’s side is coming off a Champions League loss at the hands of Tottenham Hotspur. However, they are 5-1-0 in Ligue 1 this season, also winning the xG/xGA battle on five out of six occasions. Currently, they are tied with PSG at the top of the Ligue 1 table, trailing only on goal differential.
In the long run, Marseille also have the second-best Ligue 1 odds at +1100.
Over/Under Odds & the Double Result
Additionally, the over on 2.5 goals is marginally the favorite result at -125, while the over sits at -105. This play could honestly go either way, which to me, makes it a little bit risky. On one hand, Marseille’s defense is more than capable of holding a clean sheet. On the other hand, Lille has hit this over 83% of the time this season and have already let in a bundle of goals this season.
Another bet I have my eye on is the double result for Marseille/Marseille. If you are unsure of what this is, basically it means that Marseille has to win the first and second half. The odds on this are +180, which is obviously a bit riskier than the standard moneyline play.
Marseille’s Defense Will Hold David & Company
Furthermore, Marseille’s offense is a danger in Ligue 1. More specifically, Alexis Sanchez and Luis Suarez (the Colombian one) make for a scintillating duo up top. In fact, the pair already have five combined goals this season, in just four combined starts, scoring 0.91 and 1.07 goals per 90 minutes, respectively.
Marseille vs Lille Statistics
Marseille
VS
Lille
| 2.17 | Goals per game | 2.17 |
| 1.53 | Expected goals per game | 1.58 |
| 0.50 | Goals allowed per game | 2.17 |
| 1.10 | Expected goals allowed per game | 1.52 |
| 54.90% | Possession % | 0.0% |
| 50.0% | Clean Sheet % | 40.0% |
| 14.3 | Shots per game | 16.5 |
*Stats are from 2022/23 domestic league play.
Regardless, Marseille’s offense is not my main point of focus. Instead, I think they will win rather easily based on their defensive work. Tudor’s back line including the likes of Nuno Tavares, Eric Bailly and Chancel Mbemba, has been simply sensational so far. They have conceded three goals while being expected to concede 6.6; that difference shows how impactful that back line is.
While Tavares and Jonathan Clauss like to push up into the attack, the midfield pairing of Jordan Veretout and Valentin Rongier serve as cover. As a result, Marseille are difficult to break down, and I am not sure Lille has the wherewithal and patience to do so. Seriously, it took Tottenham 76 minutes to get their first goal, and they were playing up a man for nearly thirty minutes.
Marseille vs Lille Projected Lineups and Injuries
Marseille Projected Lineup: Lopez, Tavares, Gigot, Bailly, Mbemba, Clauss, Veretout, Rongier, Guendouzi, Sanchez, Suarez
Injuries & Absences: None
Lille Projected Lineup: Jardim, Ismaily, Djalo, Fonte, Diakite, Gomes, Andre, Cabella, Bamba, David, Zhegrova
Injuries & Absences: Weah (questionable)
Marseille vs Lille Prediction
Overall, my best bet is indeed the Marseille moneyline at -102. I like the value here considering Marseille have only lost one in their last 11 home, Ligue 1 matches to Lille. They have also scored first in all six of their Ligue 1 games, which leads me to believe they can get it done on Saturday afternoon.
Pick: Marseille ML (-102)
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