USA is favored by 3.5 goals on the puck line in Olympic hockey action versus Germany
The Americans boast the second best shooting percentage so far (12.94%)
See my USA vs Germany prediction, along with the odds and start time for the Olympic Men’s Hockey on Sunday
Fresh off a 6-3 victory over Denmark on Saturday, USA returns to the ice in Milano Cortina this afternoon to take on Germany. USA can wrap up first place in Group C with a win, and nothing we’ve seen so far from them suggests they might trip up versus an inferior opponent.
Online sportsbooks feel the same way, pegging the Americans as big favorites ahead of puck drop. I tend to agree, but I’m more interested in playing the total. That number currently sits at 6.5, a number USA could easily exceed on their own.
Here is my USA versus Germany prediction, along with the latest odds and the start time for the Olympic Men’s Hockey game on Sunday.
USA vs Germany Prediction
Over 6.5 Goals (-122 at DraftKings)
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Through two games, the Americans have lit the lamp 11 times. Their 5.5 goals per game average ranks second behind only the Canadians, while they trail only Canada in shooting percentage as well (12.94%). USA peppered Denmark with 45 shots on goal on Saturday, after firing 40 shots at the Latvian goal in Thursday 5-1 victory.
Latvia is BACK in the win column after upsetting Germany 4-3 🇱🇻 pic.twitter.com/9yNuCg4o4A
— Spittin' Chiclets (@spittinchiclets) February 14, 2026
They’ve thoroughly dominated both opponents so far, and I expect more of the same versus a Germany team that just lost to Latvia. The Germans have a trio of elite NHL talent in Leon Draisaitl and Tim Stutzle up front, along with Moritz Seider on the blue line, but after that the depth falls off a cliff.
USA vs Germany Stats
| 12.94 | Shooting % | 10.91 |
| 40.0 | PP % | 16.67 |
| 100.0 | PK % | 50.0 |
| .897 | SV Pct | .916 |
Philipp Grubauer will start his third consecutive game in net for the Germans, and the Americans should have no trouble finding success versus him. Grubauer coughed up four goals on 22 shots against Latvia last time out, and entered the tournament in poor form. He surrendered 3+ goals in four of his past six NHL starts prior to the break, posting a save percentage below .900 during that stretch.
Latvia is BACK in the win column after upsetting Germany 4-3 🇱🇻 pic.twitter.com/9yNuCg4o4A
— Spittin' Chiclets (@spittinchiclets) February 14, 2026
The speed and skill of the Americans is going to be impossible for Germany to handle, and over bettors should take solace in the fact that plenty of USA skaters are due for some positive regression. Brady Tkachuk and Brock Nelson are the only American who’ve scored twice, while snipers Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, Jack Hughes, Kyle Connor, Dylan Larkin, Matt Boldy and Matthew Tkachuk have combined for only three goals on 36 shots.
Expect USA to do the bulk of their damage on the powerplay. They currently boast the number one PP unit in the tournament, while Germany has killed off just 50% of their penalties, despite facing Latvia and Denmark, neither of whom is exactly a hockey super power.
Connor Hellebuyck vs Philipp Grubauer Olympic Stats
| 1-0 | Record | 1-1 |
| 1.00 | GAA | 2.56 |
| .944 | SV Pct | .916 |
| 0 | SO | 0 |
At the other end of the rink, last year’s Hart Trophy odds winner Connor Hellebuyck will return to the USA net following a shaky Jeremy Swayman start. Hellebuyck yielded only one goal in his debut, but entered the tournament in some of the worst form of his career. He allowed 18 goals over his final five NHL starts for Winnipeg, and while the ceiling isn’t high for the Germany skaters, Draisaitl and Stutzle are good enough to generate offense against anyone in the world.
USA vs Germany Odds
| Bet Type | USA | Germany |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3.5 (+105) | +3.5 (-125) |
| Moneyline | -1000 | +650 |
| Total | O 6.5 (-122) | U 6.5 (+102) |
Odds as of Feb. 15 at DraftKings. Check out SBD’s DraftKings bonus code to bet on Olympic hockey this weekend.
As of Sunday morning, the best place to bet over 6.5 goals is at DraftKings. They’re currently offering the line at -122 odds, while other books like Bet365 have moved the number to -140 or shorter.
USA is a -1000 favorite on the moneyline, and is laying 3.5 goals on the puck line. Germany comes back as a +650 underdog, and will need to pull off the upset if they want to advance to the medal round.
USA vs Germany Start Time
Puck drop for the USA versus Germany matchup is set for 3:10 pm ET, 12:10 pm PT at the Milano Santagiulia IHO arena. Americans can watch the game live on USA Network or stream on Peacock, while Canadian viewers can see the action on CBC.
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