Across the past year, the Socceroos have tested themselves against some of the world's best. Ecuador, Argentina, Mexico and England have all been faced, with lessons ostensibly learned from the tests administered. Now, though, comes a new form of challenge: the start of the 2027 World Cup cycle. Next week's AFC World Cup qualifiers against Bangladesh and Palestine are Australia's the first competitive fixtures since losing to the eventual world champions in the round of 16 in Qatar last November.
Clearly, the level of opposition has taken a sharp turn in the lesser-heralded direction and the Socceroos will be expected to handily win both games, but there are still several storylines that will play out in the coming weeks. Firstly, Australia will now shift from the underdogs role they filled against their high-powered opposition across the past 12 months and instead assume what has often been an uncomfortable tag for Graham Arnold's side: favourites.
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Heading into the World Cup, Arnold was able to galvanise his side with an us-against-the-world, backs-to-the-wall mentality, bringing the squad together as a "family" that used doubt as fuel to play hard-running, purposeful, counter-attacking football. And aside from one blip against France, it at least did its job, securing passage to the round of 16 and turning their subsequent friendlies with some of the world's best into genuine contests. Now, however, everyone expects the Socceroos to win. And rather than play on the counter-attack and react, the side will be tasked with taking on the lion's share of possession and breaking down packed defences.
It feels so long ago now, but the side struggled to do this, albeit, against the higher-ranked foes of the AFC's third phase of qualification as opposed to the second phase that will commence this window, which brought Arnold's tenure to the brink. It can't be forgotten that Football Australia leaked against Arnold when Japan consigned the Socceroos to the playoff route in March 2022. Unable to find a way past parked buses, the Socceroos were too frequently slow and predictable in their attacks, descending into U-shaped possession and cross-spam as players were forced to fit into Arnold's preferred approach. How the gaffer will approach his second go-around in Asian qualifying shapes as a significant test.
Adding a further wrinkle, the upcoming Asian Cup, combined with the weaker opposition, could induce Arnold to experiment with his squad in these competitive fixtures: to see what younger or fringier players can do in his setup before he makes judgements on who will form part of his squad for January's tournament.
Defeating the Maldives in a two-legged playoff to earn a place in this phase of AFC qualification, Bangladesh are still searching for their first appearance on football's biggest stage. At the same time, their attempts to qualify for a first Asian Cup since 1980 -- which was also their first and thus far only appearance in the continental competition -- will have to wait until 2027 at the earliest after they failed to reach January's iteration.
Led by Spanish coach Javier Cabrera, the Bengal Tigers' squad is entirely made up of players drawn from the Bangladesh Premier League with the exception of Danish-born captain Jamal Bhuyan, who plays in the Argentinian third tier with Sol de Mayo. The Socceroos previously met Bangladesh during the second phase of AFC qualification for the 2016 World Cup, where Ange Postecoglou's side eased to 4-0 and 5-0 wins across the two fixtures.
Due to the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas and the bombardment of Gaza, Palestine will be forced to stage their game with Australia abroad with Kuwait likely to host their meeting with the Socceroos. Initial plans had been for the fixture to take place in Palestine, with Football Australia sending officials to the West Bank on a planning trip to the country before they headed to England for October fixtures, departing days before the current war began.
The Palestinian national team was able to cross the border into Jordan after security was provided by the Palestinian Authority on Oct. 30, per Al Jazeera, but only after Jordan's Prince Ali bin Al Hussein, who is also the president of the Jordanian FA, helped to coordinate the opening of the border. No Gaza-based players will be part of the 20-player squad available to Tunisian manager Makram Daboub, who has overseen an upswing in the Lions of Canaan's fortunes since being appointed in April 2021, including qualification for a third successive Asian Cup next January and a 2-1 win over Bahrain earlier this year.
As ever, the below list represents a combination of a best guess at what Arnold might be thinking heading into the window, with some further analysis and personal bias applied when the answer isn't clear. Only players that have definitively declared for the Socceroos are included -- hence the absence of potential future stars Cristian Volpato, Liam Chipperfield and Noa Skoko -- and injured players are not included in the rankings.
Arnold will announce his squad on Nov. 9.
SOCCEROOS DEPTH CHART
Coach
First choice: Graham Arnold
Next in line: Ufuk Talay, Tony Vidmar, Kevin Muscat
With Muscat reportedly set to take over as the new boss of his former club Millwall in the coming weeks (and you thought Jackson Irvine and St. Pauli was a match made in heaven) it's unlikely he'd consider a move into national team management any time soon if Arnold was to depart the role.
Short of a godfather offer from clubland coming in, the 60-year-old will almost certainly be going nowhere anytime soon anyway but, if he did, the most likely replacements are both in-house in the form of Talay, who is still working with the Socceroos squad until at least the end of the Asian Cup (unless he's tapped to replace the now-departed Steve Corica at Sydney FC), and former Arnold assistant and current Olyroos boss Tony Vidmar.
Goalkeepers
First choice: Mathew Ryan
Next in line: Joe Gauci, Lawrence Thomas, Nicholas Bilokapic, Tom Glover
Earmarking Ryan as the first-choice keeper has been the easiest part of these articles since their inception. The Socceroo skipper, 31, is entrenched as the first-choice keeper at AZ Alkmaar and his eight clean sheets this season put him fifth in that statistic across Europe's top leagues: trailing only Jack Butland at Rangers, Fernando Muslera at Galatasaray, Yann Sommer at Internazionale, and Marc-André ter Stegen at Barcelona.
Gauci, meanwhile, has rapidly re-established himself as the next in line with the commencement of the A-League Men season: conceding just once across Adelaide United's opening three games and recording a massive 92.3% save percentage -- the 21-year-old almost single-handedly keeping his side in the game as they held out for a 1-1 draw with Melbourne Victory on Saturday.
Glover, 25, has been starting for Middlesbrough in the League Cup, and was recently between the sticks as they beat Exeter City 3-2, but with Seny Dieng cemented as Michael Carrick's first-choice, he hasn't yet seen the field in the Championship. It's at a tier below, but Bilokapic is starting week in and week out for Peterborough United, who are in the mix for promotion, and regular football could give him an edge.
Left-backs
First choice: Jordan Bos
Next in line: Aziz Behich, Kye Rowles
Bos, 21, returned to the Socceroos setup during the last international window after an emergency-appendectomy-enforced absence, starting the 2-0 win over New Zealand, and has also returned to KVC Westerlo's starting lineup in the Belgian Pro League. He's been playing further up the pitch since moving to Europe, as well as on the defence's flank, but still shapes as the long-term answer at the latter for the national team.
The alternative, Behich, has experienced a difficult start to life at Melbourne City but was hardly the biggest culprit in their early season league form that saw head coach Rado VidoÅ¡iÄ replaced with Aurelio Vidmar after just two weeks of the A-League Men season.
With nobody putting their hand up and demanding selection, and given his recent experimentation and selections, it's increasingly looking like Arnold sees Rowles as his emergency fallback option for the position, as well as the left-sided centre-back when they move into a back-five either from kickoff or in possession.
Right-backs
First choice: Ryan Strain
Next in line: Lewis Miller, Thomas Deng, Miloš Degenek
Unavailable: Nathaniel Atkinson
With Atkinson battling an ankle injury, Strain and Miller both had the opportunity to press their case at right-back during the last international window and when all was said and done, it was the former that emerged with the edge. Miller, however, is doing his part to keep the pressure on by starting week-in-and-week-out for Nick Montgomery at Hibernian -- even if he had to suffer the disappointment of being knocked out of the Scottish League Cup by Aberdeen over the weekend.
Until Atkinson returns, it's also likely that Arnold will view nominal centre-backs Deng and Degenek as his next options for the position; the pair, like Rowles on the other side, can play as a right-sided centre-back in a back five or tuck inside from the flank to allow the left-back to advance in an ostensible back four.
Centre-backs
No nerves on debut. Unflappable. An assist. Top of Serie B.
Alessandro Circati was flawless as his club form transferred seamlessly into the #Socceroos against New Zealand. pic.twitter.com/qcavWiZyHw
â Subway Socceroos (@Socceroos) November 6, 2023
First choice: Harry Souttar, Kye Rowles, Cameron Burgess
Next in line: Alessandro Circati, Miloš Degenek, Thomas Deng, Alex Grant
Unavailable: Gianni Stensness, Harrison Delbridge
Souttar's concerning lack of playing time at Leicester City has continued since the last international break, but there are few indications that he's still not seen as the first-choice option by Arnold. Minutes, however, aren't a problem for Rowles, who is locked into a starting role with Hearts in Scotland (even if he, like Miller, found himself bundled out of the League Cup over the weekend as Hearts lost 3-1 to Rangers).
Speak to people around the Socceroos setup, and the prevailing sentiment surrounding Burgess since he debuted in green-and-gold is "We've got one there." The Scottish-born defender is a key cog in Ipswich Town's backline and, if their Championship form holds, will be a Premier League defender next season. Circati, 20, finally made his debut against New Zealand during the last international window and looked right at home. The Perth SC junior is a regular part of Parma's XI in Serie B and if the Crociati can keep up their form, he will also be playing in a big-five league next season in Serie A.
Degenek, 29, brings versatility, leadership, and a killer mentality to the squad but he's only played 22 minutes for Red Star Belgrade since the start of September and appears to be one of the "losers," for lack of a better word, from Burgess and Circati's emergence. Absent for the last few international windows, Deng has been playing for Albirex Niigata in the J1 League and adds more adaptability but with his domestic season ending soon he's going to struggle to break through without something changing.
The same goes for Grant in Korea, albeit the defender, whose Pohang Steelers won the Korean FA Cup over the weekend, will have Asian Champions League football to keep him busy when the K-League ends.
Central midfielders
Smiling Massassin