The Cubs are nearly unbeatable at home with a 30-14 record, while injuries have decimated Boston’s bullpen
The Over has hit in 80% of Chicago’s last 10 home games, and sharp money is pounding it
Read below for Cubs vs Red Sox prediction, odds, props and public betting for Friday
The MLB season resumes from the All-Star break with a Friday afternoon interleague matchup at Wrigley Field. The Boston Red Sox send Lucas Giolito (6-1, 3.36 ERA) to face the Chicago Cubs and Colin Rea (7-3, 3.91 ERA) in what appears on the surface as a pitching advantage for the visitors.
But there’s one major issue for Boston: their bullpen is absolutely wrecked. Nine relievers are on the IL. That’s not a typo. Meanwhile, the Cubs have been dominant at home all season, and their offense can put up huge numbers in a hurry.
First pitch from the Friendly Confines is set for Friday, July 18, at 2:20 PM ET.
Red Sox vs Cubs Predictions
Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-140 at Caesars)
Over 7.5 Runs (-105)
Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+158)
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The Cubs opened at -120 and have been bet up to -140, showing clear support for the home team. The total has dropped a full point from 8.5, indicating sharp money. However, we can’t buy in considering Giolito’s struggles in this spot, and how well Chicago bats at home.
The market gives Chicago about a 56.3% chance of winning. At -140, that’s fair value considering their home dominance.
Cubs vs Red Sox Pitcher Props
| PITCHER | STRIKEOUTS | EARNED RUNS | WALKS | HITS | INNINGS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Giolito (BOS) | 5.5 (O +121/U -157) | 2.5 (O -118/U -110) | 2.5 (O +130/U -185) | 4.5 (O -166/U +123) | 17.5 Outs (O -117/U -110) |
| Colin Rea (CHC) | 4.5 (O +127/U -163) | 2.5 (O -115/U -112) | 1.5 (O +120/U -170) | 5.5 (O -130/U -105) | 17.5 Outs (O -107/U -120) |
MLB pitcher props as of July 17, 2025 from consensus.
I’m fading Giolito’s Over 5.5 strikeouts despite the plus money. Given his post-All-Star break struggles and career issues at Wrigley, he might not last long enough to rack up 6 K’s. The Cubs will be aggressive early knowing his history.
In three career starts at Wrigley, Giolito has allowed 12 earned runs in just 15.2 innings. That’s a 6.89 ERA against the Cubs at home.
For Rea, the Over 5.5 hits allowed at -130 looks solid. Boston’s patient approach should lead to plenty of baserunners against the soft-tossing righty.
Key Batter Props
| PLAYER | HITS | TOTAL BASES | HOME RUNS | RBIs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 (O -249/U +183) | 1.5 (O +100/U -132) | +435 | 0.5 (O +183/U -251) |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 (O -244/U +178) | 1.5 (O +113/U -147) | +405 | 0.5 (O +170/U -231) |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 (O -209/U +158) | 1.5 (O +123/U -157) | +370 | 0.5 (O +160/U -214) |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 (O -179/U +135) | 1.5 (O +135/U -181) | +460 | 0.5 (O +195/U -269) |
Duran and Bregman are both heavily juiced to record a hit, which makes sense given Rea’s tendency to allow contact. On the Cubs side, Suzuki at +370 to homer offers value if you’re looking for a longshot against Giolito.
Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Public Betting
The public money is forecasting a high-scoring game. A massive 78.5% of bets and 81.3% of the money are on Over 7.5.
The moneyline shows an interesting split. While 61.7% of tickets are on Chicago, the sharp money indicator points to Boston. Chicago’s stake percentage is 4.3% lower than their bet percentage, suggesting bigger wagers are backing the road dog.
I’ll side with the public here. Boston’s bullpen situation is too dire to ignore.
Injury Impact
Boston’s injury list is staggering. They’re missing Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Patrick Sandoval from the rotation. The bullpen? Liam Hendriks, Josh Winckowski, Justin Slaten, Nick Burdi, and several others are all out.
The Cubs have their own injuries, notably ace Justin Steele. But their bullpen is in much better shape, which should be the difference late in this game.
Recent Form
Both teams had momentum prior to the break. Chicago took down the Yankees 4-1 behind Shota Imanaga’s gem last time out. Boston beat Tampa Bay by the same score with Brayan Bello dealing.
But momentum only goes so far when you’re missing half your pitching staff. The Cubs’ home dominance and Boston’s injury woes make this a clear play on the home team and the Over.
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