The Blue Jays and Yankees start a massive three-game series in Toronto on Monday
New York’s Carlos Rodón faces Toronto’s Kevin Gausman in a solid pitching matchup, at least on paper
See my Yankees vs Blue Jays picks and predictions, plus the best betting lines for the moneyline, runline, and total
The top two teams in stacked AL East, the New York Yankees (55-44, 25-25 away, 43-52-4 O/U) and Toronto Blue Jays (58-41, 35-16 home, 49-44-6 O/U), start a huge three-game series at the Rogers Centre in Toronto on Monday night. First pitch for this series opener is slated for 7:07 pm ET.
The Blue Jays enter on a ten-game home win streak, tying a franchise record set in 1985. But with a struggling Kevin Gausman (6-7, 4.19 ERA) on the mound against Carlos Rodón (10-6, 3.08 ERA) for the Pinstripes, the Yankees/Blue Jays odds slightly favor the visitors.
Below, I will break down the odds, dive into the critical batter-vs-pitcher matchups, and provide my top picks and predictions for Monday’s series-opener.
Go to: Betting Lines | Bat-vs-Pitch Stats | Player Props | Picks
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Yankees | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -120 | +102 |
| Runline | -1.5 (+138) | +1.5 (-166) |
| Total Runs | O 8.5 (-115) | U 8.5 (-105) |
The moneyline projects a close contest, with the Yankees (-120) holding a slight edge over the Jays (+102) in Monday’s MLB odds. A vig-free calculation of the moneyline gives the New York Yankees a 52.4% implied win probability, compared to 47.6% for the Jays. Given Toronto’s stellar 35-16 (.686) record at home this season and their recent success as an underdog, the +102 price presents an attractive opportunity. The total is sitting at 8.5 runs with the over slightly favored at -115.
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Toronto is one of just ten teams that’s hit more overs than unders this season, cashing the over in a profitable 52.6% of games. The Yankees have been an even-stronger under bet, though, hitting the under in 54.7% of games to date.
NYY vs TOR Odds Movement
The betting lines have seen notable movement since opening, illustrating a fascinating split between public perception and professional action. The moneyline opened with the Yankees as heavier favorites at -126, but has since shifted towards the Blue Jays, who moved from +108 to +102. This movement suggests that while the public may be backing the Yankees’ brand name, sharp money is coming in on the home underdog, a trend supported by public betting split data.
The total has also seen modest movement. Over 8.5 opened at -105 but is now favored at -115. This movement is likely influenced by the powerful offenses and historical head-to-head data (the Yankees and Jays have hit in their last four meetings).
NYY vs TOR Public Betting Splits
The MLB public betting data reveals a classic “public vs sharps” split. On the moneyline, the ticket count is nearly even (50.4% on Yankees, 49.6% on Blue Jays), but the money tells a different story. A commanding 61.7% of the handle is on the Toronto Blue Jays, indicating that larger, “sharper” wagers are backing the home underdog.
For the total, public sentiment is overwhelmingly one-sided, with 86.3% of bets and 83.7% of the money on the over, suggesting both casual and serious bettors expect a high-scoring game.
Pitcher-vs-Batter History: Rodón vs Gausman
The starting pitching matchup is a powder keg. Kevin Gausman has struggled with the Yankees’ power, while Carlos Rodón has been vulnerable to the Blue Jays’ top right-handed hitter.
New York Yankees Career Statistics vs Kevin Gausman
| BATTER | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | .091 | .160 | .091 | .251 |
| J. Chisholm Jr | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | .000 | .273 | .000 | .273 |
| J. Dominguez | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .250 | .250 | .500 |
| JC Escarra | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 16 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | .563 | .667 | .813 | 1.479 |
| Trent Grisham | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | .222 | .211 | .389 | .599 |
| Aaron Judge | 43 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 18 | .372 | .509 | .860 | 1.370 |
| Oswald Peraza | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Ben Rice | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | .000 | .571 | .000 | .571 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 24 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | .292 | .370 | .583 | .954 |
| Anthony Volpe | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 | .143 | .182 | .381 | .563 |
| Austin Wells | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | .286 | .412 | .429 | .840 |
| Totals | 184 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 31 | 68 | .250 | .356 | .478 | .835 |
Both Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt, two future Hall of Famers, have been absolute nightmare matchups for Gausman. Judge has a gaudy 1.370 OPS in a massive sample size of 43 at-bats, which includes six home runs, three doubles, and 12 RBI. Goldschmidt is 9-for-16 with one home run, one double, plus another five walks. Giancarlo Stanton (twice) and Anthony Volpe are the only other Yankee hitters with homers against the 34-year-old righty.
The NYY batters that Gausman has had the most success against are Cody Bellinger (2-for-22, no extra-base hits) and Oswaldo Peraza (0-for-7 with four strikeouts).
Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs Carlos Rodón
| BATTER | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addison Barger | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Bo Bichette | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .273 | .333 | .364 | .697 |
| Ernie Clement | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .300 | .300 | .300 | .600 |
| V. Guerrero Jr | 15 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | .600 | .667 | 1.000 | 1.667 |
| Tyler Heineman | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Leo Jimenez | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .125 | .300 | .250 | .550 |
| Joey Loperfido | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Davis Schneider | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .222 | .300 | .333 | .633 |
| George Springer | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 4 | .208 | .321 | .500 | .821 |
| Myles Straw | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | .000 | .200 | .000 | .200 |
| Will Wagner | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 1.000 |
| Totals | 98 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 27 | .245 | .315 | .408 | .723 |
On the whole, Rodón has decent numbers against the Jays’ lineup, but Vlad Guerrero Jr (9-for-15, one homer, three doubles, five RBI, zero Ks) has absolutely owned the 32-year-old lefty. George Springer is only 5-for-24 (.208) against Rodón but that includes two home runs, a double, and six RBI.
Don’t expect Myles Straw to be in the starting lineup for Toronto tonight. The journeyman outfielder is 0-for-8 against Rodón with five Ks.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Player Props
| BATTER | HITS | TOTAL BASES | HOMERS | RBI | RUNS SCORED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 (O -221 | U +163) | 1.5 (O -105 | U -130) | +196 | 0.5 (O +123 | U -163) | 0.5 (O -141 | U +103) |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr (TOR) | 0.5 (O -261 | U +188) | 1.5 (O +112 | U -150) | +420 | 0.5 (O +152 | U -204) | 0.5 (O -108 | U -127) |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 (O -216 | U +160) | 1.5 (O +123 | U -159) | +400 | 0.5 (O +183 | U -249) | 0.5 (O -115 | U -119) |
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | 1.5 (O +178 | U -240) | 1.5 (O -103 | U -132) | +520 | 0.5 (O +137 | U -179) | 0.5 (O +122 | U -161) |
| PITCHER | STRIKEOUTS | EARNED RUNS | WALKS | HITS | OUTS |
| Kevin Gausman (TOR) | 5.5 (O -140 | U +110) | 2.5 (O -130 | U +100) | N/A | 4.5 (O -157 | U +120) | 17.5 (O -120 | U -107) |
| Carlos Rodón (NYY) | 5.5 (O +128 | U -164) | 2.5 (O -103 | U -129) | N/A | 5.5 (O +120 | U -163) | 17.5 (O -107 | U -126) |
MLB player props as of July 21 at FanDuel.
The player props market offers intriguing angles based on the historical matchups. Aaron Judge’s total bases prop (over 1.5 at -105) is particularly compelling, given his 1.370 OPS and six home runs against Gausman. For the Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr has absolutely owned Carlos Rodón, boasting a ridiculous 1.667 OPS in 15 at-bats. Guerrero over 1.5 total bases at +112 is a fantastic value play.
On the pitching side, Gausman’s strikeout prop is set at 5.5, but the over is heavily juiced at -140. While he has strikeout stuff, the Yankees’ lineup is disciplined. The under on Rodón’s strikeouts (5.5 at -164) is appealing, as well; the Blue Jays have a low K-rate against him historically, and he has only exceeded that number twice in his last seven starts.
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks
This matchup is defined by the starting pitchers and their history against these specific lineups. Kevin Gausman gets the nod for Toronto, but he’s been vulnerable against New York. Aaron Judge has crushed Gausman’s pitching throughout his career, and with Gausman’s ERA sitting at 4.19, the potent Yankees offense is a major threat. On the other side, Carlos Rodón has been the more consistent arm this year with a 3.08 ERA, but he faces a Blue Jays lineup that has his number. Vladimir Guerrero Jr and George Springer have combined for three homers and a collective OPS well over 1.000 against him.
Not only are the Jays a remarkable 35-16 (.686) at home this season, they are also 5-0 straight-up in their last five games as an underdog. The Yankees, meanwhile, have been dreadful as road favorites, posting a 3-9 (.250) record in their last 12 and an even worse 1-6 (.143) mark in their last seven road games against teams with a winning record.
Given Toronto’s home-field dominance and the Yankees’ road struggles in this spot, backing the home underdog is the sharp play. The potent offenses and favorable hitting conditions at Rogers Centre also strongly support the over, a trend that has cashed in the last four head-to-head meetings.
All told, I am four picks that I’m comfortable with in Monday’s Yankees/Blue Jays series-opener. They start with the Toronto moneyline at plus-money and over 8.5 runs, and finish with a pair of player props: over 1.5 total bases for both Judge and Guerrero.
Picks:
Toronto Blue Jays moneyline (+102)
Over 8.5 (-115)
Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+112)
Judge over 1.5 total bases (-105)
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Injury Reports
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | SP | Elbow | D60 |
| Clarke Schmidt | SP | Forearm | D15 |
| Oswaldo Cabrera | IF | Ankle | D60 |
| Max Fried | SP | Finger | Day-to-Day |
| Ryan Yarbrough | SP | Oblique | D15 |
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status |
| Daulton Varsho | OF | Hamstring | D10 |
| Andrés Giménez | IF | Ankle | D10 |
| Yimi García | RP | Ankle | D15 |
| Alek Manoah | SP | Elbow | D60 |
| Anthony Santander | OF | Shoulder | D60 |
The sports and sports betting data in this article was gathered with the assistance of AI that is connected to Sportradar’s database.