Freddy Peralta takes the mound for New York, boasting an elite 12.19 K/9 and a 1.72 xFIP
Mark Vientos offers prime player prop value, averaging 1.429 hits per game
See our best bets for Diamondbacks vs Mets on April 7
The New York Mets (6-4) host the Arizona Diamondbacks (5-5) today at Citi Field. First pitch is at 4:10 pm, ET. MLB.TV will provide national coverage, which is included for Fubo TV subscribers.
The Mets enter as home favorites, even without injured star Juan Soto, looking to build upon a strong start anchored by elite bats like Francisco Lindor and Luis Robert Jr. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks aim to push above the .500 mark as road underdogs. This matchup hinges on a pitching duel between Arizona’s Zac Gallen and New York’s Freddy Peralta. With two capable starters, dynamic lineups, and varying bullpen reliability, this contest presents a layered puzzle for sports bettors seeking value.
Our analysis breaks down what matters most and delivers the best bets for Diamondbacks at Mets today.
Diamondbacks vs Mets Odds
New York enters this contest as a clear home favorite on the moneyline at -162. Removing the sportsbook’s vig, this translates to a 59.24% implied win probability for the home side, while Arizona holds a 40.76% vig-free probability to pull off the upset at +135. For runline bettors, backing the favored home squad to win by multiple runs yields a lucrative +140 payout, whereas taking the 1.5-run insurance with the visitors requires laying heavy -169 juice. The game total sits at a flat 7 runs, signaling oddsmakers anticipate a tight, low-scoring affair.
While the baseline numbers for the spread and total remained static since the open, the underlying juice shifted notably. The runline opened at -1.5 (+146) for the home team and +1.5 (-178) for the visitors. Relentless public backing forced oddsmakers to adjust the payout down to +140. A dramatic shift occurred in the totals market as well; the total originally heavily favored the Under at -122. After an avalanche of tickets on a high-scoring outcome, sportsbooks flipped the juice entirely, pushing the Over to -113.
Zac Gallen vs Freddy Peralta 2026 Stats
| Statistic | Gallen (ARI) | Peralta (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| W-L Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| ERA | 3.60 | 4.36 |
| WHIP | 1.10 | 1.06 |
| xFIP | 4.36 | 1.72 |
| FIP | 4.28 | 3.56 |
| K/9 | 3.60 | 12.19 |
| BB/9 | 1.80 | 1.74 |
| Opp. BA | .237 | .225 |
Zac Gallen vs Mets
| GS | IP | ERA | W-L | H | HR | BB | SO | OppAVG | OppOPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 44.0 | 3.07 | 2-2 | 29 | 3 | 21 | 46 | .182 | .577 |
Freddy Peralta vs Diamondbacks
| GS | G | IP | ERA | WL | H | HR | BB | SO | OppAVG | OppOPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 6 | 26.2 | 1.35 | 4-0 | 12 | 0 | 16 | 35 | .138 | .483 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Predictions & Best Bets
When evaluating this matchup, statistical and situational trends heavily favor the home side. The Mets boast a pristine 100% win rate (2-0) as underdogs this season, but more importantly, their bullpen metrics dictate late-game success. New York’s relief corps features a dominant 1.65 ERA, drastically overshadowing a Diamondbacks bullpen that yields a disastrous 6.50 ERA. Situational trends show the Mets are winning at a 60% clip (6-4 overall), while the Diamondbacks hold a perfect 100% win rate (2-0) as favorites but stumble at a 33.3% rate (1-2) as underdogs. Given the massive late-inning disparity, backing the home team holds substantial value.
The Pick: Mets Moneyline (-162 DraftKings): Expect New York to lean on superior offensive depth and lockdown relief pitching to secure the victory in their home ballpark.
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOKOffer
T&Cs
Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.
LOCK IN PROMO
SIGNUP PROMO
SIGN UP
& GET $1,050BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS
GET PROMO
Over/Under Prediction: Under 7 (-107 BetMGM): Both starters excel at preventing base traffic. With Peralta and Gallen hovering around a 1.10 WHIP, and Arizona’s lineup struggling to a .271 team OBP, early scoring opportunities will be scarce. Furthermore, the Under has cashed in 80% of New York’s games and 70% of Arizona’s games this season. This makes the Under a mathematically sound situational play, heavily supported by the 2.53 combined ERA of the Mets’ pitching staff.
BETMGM SPORTSBOOKOffer
T&Cs
Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.