Tonight’s UFC 323 is headlined by Dvalishvili vs Yan 2
Dvalishvili is seeking an unprecedented fourth title defense this year
See my final UFC 323 predictions for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 and more below, plus the latest odds
History is on the line tonight at UFC 323 in Las Vegas. Bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili will step back into the ring for the fourth time this year, looking for an unprecedented fourth title defense. The Georgia native will take on former champ Peter Yan in the headliner, an opponent he dominated back in 2023.
The prelims are set to get underway at 3 pm PT, 6 pm ET on ESPN+, with the Main Card fights starting at 7 pm PT, 10 pm ET on ESPN PPV.
Here are my UFC 323 predictions and picks, as well as the latest odds for my favorite fights on the card.
Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 Picks
Dvalishvili was pegged as a -410 favorite when the opening UFC 323 odds were released, and that number has held firm at most sportsbooks. I don’t want to lay that much juice when more enticing bets are available, but I do think it’s a very safe leg if you’re building a parlay.
Dvalishvili will enter the ring riding a 14-fight winning streak. He’s already cleaned out the Bantamweight division, which explains why he’s fighting Yan for a second time. The rematch certainly has nothing to do with the competitiveness of the first bout, as Dvalishvili won easily. He swept the judges scorecards, racking up 11 takedowns. Yan was absolutely gassed by the end, a trait common among Dvalishvili’s opponents.
🗣️ Merab Dvalishvili again responds to Petr Yan saying it’s easy to be active when you fight at home all the time:
“My home is not Vegas, I just live here. He can do the same, but he’d rather live in Thailand with the ladyboys.” 💀😭
(via #UFC323 weigh-in show) pic.twitter.com/ml6axhOdNi
— MMA Orbit (@mma_orbit) December 5, 2025
The nine-year vet is impossible to game plan for thanks to his versatility. He’s also like a fine wine, only getting better with age. Dvalishvili’s always kept opponents on their toes with his frantic pace and his ability to take them to the mat, but since his last fight with Yan he’s significantly levelled up his striking.
Tale of the Tape
| Merab Dvalishvili | Statistic | Peter Yan |
|---|---|---|
| 21-4 | Record | 19-5 |
| 34 | Age | 32 |
| 5’6″ | Height | 5’7″ |
| 68″ | Reach | 67″ |
| 4.33 | Sig. Strikes/Min | 5.12 |
If there’s one thing working in Yan’s favor it’s that he’s never been finished. That’s just fine, because Dvalishvili has the stamina to fight all night. Literally. 12 of his last 14 bouts have gone the distance, including three of his last four 5 round fights. His cardio is a weapon over a 5 round bout like tonight’s, where Yan was not only gassed by the end of their previous matchup, but also in his next 5 rounder with Song Yadong as well.
I’m betting on history repeating itself tonight, with another unanimous decision for the champ.
Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 Picks: Dvalishvili by decision (-225)
UFC 323 Odds – Main Card
| Fighter | Odds | Over/Under Rounds |
|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | -410 | O4.5 -395 |
| Peter Yan | +320 | U4.5 -280 |
| Fighter | Odds | Over/Under Rounds |
| Alexandre Pantoja | -238 | O2.5 -238 |
| Joshua Van | +195 | U2.5 +180 |
| Fighter | Odds | Over/Under Rounds |
| Brandon Moreno | +105 | O2.5 -315 |
| Tatsuro Taira | -125 | U2.5 +230 |
| Fighter | Odds | Over/Under Rounds |
| Henry Cejudo | +205 | O2.5 -250 |
| Payton Talbott | -250 | U2.5 +190 |
| Fighter | Odds | Over/Under Rounds |
| Jan Blachowicz | -130 | O2.5 +114 |
| Bogdan Guskov | +110 | U2.5 -145 |
Odds as of December 5th at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC 323 on Saturday.
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Pantoja vs Van Prediction
Stop me if you’ve heard this before. A dangerous striker is going to give Flyweight King Alexandre Pantoja a run for his money. That was literally the sentiment in Pantoja’s last fight versus Kai Kara-France, and the champ wore him down without breaking a sweat.
The #UFC Legacy Continues… Alexandre Pantoja’s UFC Career pic.twitter.com/1Ve4YhN2ZT
— West Till Death (@WestTillDeath) December 1, 2025
Van’s pedigree is a little stronger with wins over the number two and three fighters in the division, but he’s never faced a fighter of this calibre. Pantoja will attack him relentlessly with his grappling, and the moment Van stops worrying about the champ’s striking, is when the fight will fall apart.
Van is simply too one-dimensional to hang in this bout. Once the fight inevitably goes to the ground he won’t be able to withstand the champ’s pressure.
Pantoja vs Van Pick: Pantoja by submission (+150)
Vettori vs Ferreira Prediction
I’m going to the prelims card for my final pick, grabbing Brunno Ferreira at even money. This is less about backing Ferreira, and more about fading a washed up Vettori. He’s lost three of his last five fights, with nearly every defeat coming at the hands of a grappler.
Wrestling just happens to be Ferreira’s speciality with multiple national championships under his belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. It’s worth noting that Vettori has never been finished, but the bulk of this fight will happen on the mat, precluding him from collecting enough points to win on the judges cards.
There may be an extra bit of motivation for Ferreira as well after the weigh-ins. He came in 3 pounds over the limit, which will cost him a 20% fine from his final purse.
Vettori vs Ferreira Pick: Ferreira Moneyline (+100)
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