The WM Phoenix Open tees off Thursday, February 5th, from TPC Scottsdale
Scottie Scheffler is the favorite to lead after 18 holes over Cameron Young
Read below for five picks of mine to be leader after day one of the WM Phoenix Open
Everyone’s favorite party event is on the horizon, with the world’s best competing at the raucous and rambunctious WM Phoenix Open. This event kick started Scottie Scheffler’s dominant career, as he won for the first time on the PGA Tour in 2022, then defended his title the following year. He’s the overwhelming favorite in the WM Phoenix Open odds to take home the title a third time.
Instead of waiting until Sunday to potentially collect our earnings, this article will explore bets that can be made that will settle at the conclusion of the first round, searching to find who will be the first-round leader after 18 holes.
WM Phoenix Open First-Round Leader Odds
| Player | Odds | Tee Time (Eastern Time) |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +1000 | 10:15 am |
| Cameron Young | +2700 | 2:44 pm |
| Xander Schauffele | +3000 | 2:44 pm |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3300 | 2:33 pm |
| Sam Burns | +3500 | 9:53 am |
| Ben Griffin | +3500 | 10:04 am |
| Viktor Hovland | +3500 | 2:33 pm |
| Brooks Koepka | +3500 | 2:44 pm |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | +4000 | 9:31 am |
| Si Woo Kim | +4000 | 2:55 pm |
| Maverick McNealy | +4000 | 3:06 pm |
| Pierceson Coody | +4500 | 9:31 am |
| J.J. Spaun | +4500 | 9:53 am |
| Jake Knapp | +4500 | 9:53 am |
| Sahith Theegala | +4500 | 9:53 am |
| Nick Taylor | +4500 | 10:04 am |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +4500 | 10:04 am |
| Chris Gotterup | +4500 | 10:15 am |
| Jordan Spieth | +4500 | 10:15 am |
| Collin Morikawa | +4500 | 2:33 pm |
The weather will be in the low 60’s in the morning, reaching the low 80’s in the afternoon, with it being mainly sunny. The wind gusts will be a bit more prevalent in the morning, blowing between 12 and 20 MPH, with a slight advantage to those in the afternoon wave as it calms down.
A benefit, however, for those teeing it up in the morning is the exact same as it is every week – less bumpy greens with fewer players chewing them up.
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WM Phoenix Open First-Round Leader Picks
Pierceson Coody +4500
Nick Taylor +4500
Keith Mitchell +5500
Garrick Higgo +6000
Michael Kim +8000
To tee things off, I’m honing in on a player who may not be a household name, but has been playing great golf of late. Pierceson Coody (9:31 am, +4500) is coming off three top-20s to begin 2026, highlighted by a runner-up at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open. In that span, he’s third in strokes gained: off-the-tee, and last year was seventh in first round scoring average (68.73).
Coody has backed that up in 2026, ranking 13th in that category, with an average score of 66 on Thursdays. He co-led after day one of The American Express two events ago, and is trending in a fantastic direction.
First round leader stats for the Phoenix Open
– Nick Taylor has finished rd1 in 1st and 2nd place within the last three years here
– Scottie Scheffler is 0-for-6 in terms of finishing rd1 in the top-5 here
– Low rd1 scoring average (min 3 starts, last 10 years): Xander… pic.twitter.com/t11SXvEktJ
— Stanley (@Golf_Stats) February 4, 2026
Next I have my sights set on Nick Taylor (10:04 am, +4500), who won this tournament in 2024. The year prior to that, he was runner-up. In the first round in 2023, Taylor was in second position, and his triumph saw him hold a whopping five stroke lead over the field 24 months ago.
In the last twelve rounds at this track, nobody is better than the Canadian in terms of total strokes gained (10.0, and putting, also 10.0). The two times Taylor has teed it up in 2026, he co-led after day one of the Sony Open (with a 62), and also fired a 65 at the American Express, making him an intriguing selection.
2025 PGA Tour First-Round Scoring Average Leaders
| Rank/Golfer | First Round Scoring Average | First Round Leader Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Scottie Scheffler | 67.45 | +1000 |
| 2. Garrick Higgo | 67.77 | +6000 |
| 3. Harry Hall | 68.24 | +6000 |
| 4. Keith Mitchell | 68.29 | +5500 |
| 5. Ben Griffin | 68.66 | +3500 |
| 6. Thorbjorn Olesen | 68.70 | +8000 |
| 7. Pierceson Coody | 68.73 | +4500 |
| 9. Rico Hoey | 68.76 | +8000 |
| 17. Jake Knapp | 69.00 | +4500 |
| 17. Sami Valimaki | 69.00 | +10000 |
Longshots Who Could Lead After 18 Holes
Keith Mitchell (2:22 pm, +5500), was a first round warrior last year, as he was fourth best to begin tournaments. That included a ludicrous stretch where he was either first or second place on the leaderboard in five straight stroke play tourneys. He’s had three top-20s at the WM in his career, and is coming off a T-11th at Torrey Pines.
Keith Mitchell's last 5 opening rounds in PGA Tour stroke play events
Scoring average: 64.2
Position: 1st-1st-2nd-2nd-1st
Birdies/better per round: 7.8
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) May 8, 2025
Garrick Higgo (3:06 pm, +6000) was second best on tour last season in first round scoring average (67.77), behind some guy named Scottie Scheffler. He ended off 2025 scorching hot, nearly winning a few events, with results of T-7th-2nd-T-4th-T-4th.
Finally, social media darling Michael Kim (9:42 am, +8000) is my longest shot on the board. I’m basing this solely on the fact last year at the WM Phoenix Open, he was runner-up to Thomas Detry. Kim was first in scrambling over 72 holes, and fourth in greens in regulation, so he’s worth a flier in the WM Phoenix Open longshot picks.