No. 5 Georgia takes on No. 2 Texas in a rematch for the SEC Championship on Saturday
The Bulldogs beat the Longhorns 30-15 as 4-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season
Read below for our Georgia vs Texas prediction, updated odds and player props for the SEC title game
The SEC Championship Game is giving us a rematch we’ve all been waiting for, as No. 5 Georgia (10-2) clashes with No. 2 Texas (11-1) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Both teams have changed since Georgia’s 30-15 win in Austin back in October – the Bulldogs have shown some cracks, while Texas has reeled off five straight wins. With a playoff bye on the line, the implications couldn’t be greater.
Here is our UGA vs Texas prediction for Saturday’s SEC Championship Game.
Georgia vs Texas Prediction
Look, that first meeting told us a lot. Georgia physically dominated Texas in the trenches on their way to that 30-15 road upset. The Bulldogs’ defense made life miserable for the Longhorns, who mustered just 259 total yards and an abysmal 29 on the ground.
The reality is, while Texas has been rolling lately, there are still legitimate questions about their offensive line holding up against elite defensive fronts like Georgia’s. I’ve been really impressed with how the Bulldogs’ defensive line has rounded into championship form lately, averaging three sacks over their last three games.
On the offensive side, Carson Beck seems to have figured things out after those midseason turnover issues. The junior has been dealing lately, tossing 11 touchdowns without a single pick in his last three games. He’ll look again to target Domini Lovett, who caught five passes for 47 yards and two TDs last week vs GA Tech.
The ground game looks potent too, with freshman sensation Nate Frazier (587 rush yds, 8 TD) stepping up due to Trevor Etienne being injured. The latest Etinee injury update is that the star RB is questionable to play with a rib injury. That would be massive for UGA if he can go, as Etienne found paydirt three times in the first meeting.
Let’s be honest – playing this game in Atlanta is huge for Georgia. The crowd will be heavily pro-Bulldogs, and this team knows Mercedes-Benz Stadium like the back of their hand after playing here the last three seasons.
While Texas definitely has the talent to pull this off, I’m rolling with the battle-tested Bulldogs as 3-point underdogs. Kirby Smart’s defensive scheme and Georgia’s ability to control both lines of scrimmage should be the difference. Expect another rough day for Ewers against that relentless pass rush.
Prediction: Georgia +3
Before rushing to bet Texas as field-goal favorites ATS, consider that the favorite is 25-6 straight-up in the SEC Championship Game, but just 14-16-1 against the spread.
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Updated Georgia vs Texas Odds
There’s been some interesting line movement since this one opened. Texas started as 1.5-point favorites at -115, but sharp money pushed it up to -3 before some Georgia buyback brought it down to Texas -2.5. It’s gone back up to -3 at the time of publishing.
Here are the latest odds for the SEC Championship Game:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | +3 (-115) | +125 | Over 50.5 (-110) |
| Texas | -3 (-105) | -150 | Under 50.5 (-110) |
The total has increased slightly from their first meeting’s 45 combined points. It’s worth noting both teams have been trending under lately, with Texas going under in 6 of their last 8. That contradicts a trend of the “over” going 16-5 in the last 21 SEC Championship Games.
Check out our full college football odds page for the latest title game lines and totals.
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