#9 Tennessee visits #8 Ohio State in the First Round of the College Football Playoff
Nico Iamaleava has the lowest QBR of any quarterback in the CFP
Keep reading for the best Tennessee vs Ohio State player prop bets for this Saturday night showdown
Oddsmakers project Tennessee vs Ohio State to be the most competitive matchup in the first round of the College Football Playoff. The spread for Saturday night’s showdown has ping-ponged between OSU -7 and -7.5, and while advanced projections give a slight lean to the Vols in that market, there’s not a ton of value to be found.
The same cannot be said for the college football player props. These lines are nowhere near as efficient as the spread or total. Names like Jeremiah Smith, Dylan Sampson and Will Howard are well-known to even casual fans, and their over/unders give us another way to sweat this contest.
Tennessee vs Ohio State Player Props
| Passer | Passing Yards | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Iamaleava (TENN) | 180.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 0.5 (O -235 | U +172) |
| Will Howard (OSU) | 234.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 1.5 (O +106 | U -140) |
| Rusher | Rush Yards | Rush + Rec Yds |
| Dylan Sampson (TENN) | 92.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 106.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
| Nico Iamaleava (TENN) | 18.5 (O -115 | U -115) | OFF |
| TreVeyon Henderson (OSU) | 49.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 68.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
| Quinshon Judkins (OSU) | 54.5 (O -115 | U -115) | OFF |
| Will Howard (OSU) | 10.5 (O -115 | U -115) | OFF |
| Receiver | Receptions | Receiving Yards |
| Dont’e Thornton Jr. (TENN) | 2.5 (O +106 | U -138) | 34.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
| Chris Brazzell II (TENN) | 2.5 (O +122| U -160) | 26.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
| Jeremiah Smith (OSU) | 4.5 (O -130 | U +100) | 69.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
| Emeka Egbuka (OSU) | 4.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 50.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
| Carnell Tate (OSU) | 3.5 (O -160 | U +122) | 48.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
Howard has the game’s highest passing yards prop at 234.5, while Samspon and Smith boast the biggest rushing and receiving lines. Tennessee runs the football at one of the nation’s highest rates, making a fade on QB Nico Iamaleava very tempting.
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Tennessee vs Ohio State Prop #1: Nico Iamaleava Passing Yards
The Vols call a run play on over 60% of their offensive snaps. When they do throw, it’s typically short and underneath, forcing receivers to accumulate YAC to boost Iamaleava’s stock. That may work against some programs, but not the Buckeyes. Ohio State allows the second-fewest passing yards per game, and ranks top-15 in tackling.
Their pass rush gets home at the nation’s second-highest rate, and they’re limiting enemy QB’s to only 5.6 yards per throw. Iamaleava, meanwhile, has the worst QBR among playoff quarterbacks and does not throw deep.
Nico attempted only three throws of 20-plus yards versus Kentucky and Georgia, two of the best pass defenses he faced. He’s 5-for-22 (23%) on 20+ throws this season, and 0-for-4 over his last three games.
Pick: Nico Iamaleava Under 180.5 Passing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Tennessee vs Ohio State Prop #2: TreVeyon Henderson Receiving Yards
The winner of this game gets #1 Oregon in the second round, which explains why both Tennessee and OSU’s price has lengthened in the National Championship odds. As good as the Buckeyes pass defense is, the Vols’ unit is no slouch. They rank top-16 in opponent completion percentage, passing yards and yards per attempt, and 10th in pass rush win rate.
A good pass rush and a strong secondary is likely to force plenty of check downs, which opens the door for more receiving production for TreVeyon Henderson. The RB has caught at least two passes in four straight games, and has 18+ receiving yards in four of his last five contests.
Pick: TreVeyon Henderson Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Tennessee vs Ohio State Touchdown Props
| Player | First TD | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Sampson (TENN) | +500 | -145 |
| Quinshon Judkins (OSU) | +500 | -130 |
| TreVeyon Henderson (OSU) | +550 | -110 |
| Jeremiah Smith (OSU) | +550 | +100 |
| Emeka Egbuka (OSU) | +600 | +115 |
| Will Howard (OSU) | +800 | +145 |
| Carnell Tate (OSU) | +1000 | +210 |
| Nico Iamaleava (TENN) | +1400 | +250 |
| Dont’e Thornton Jr. (TENN) | +1600 | +300 |
| James Peoples (OSU) | +1800 | +425 |
Switching to the touchdown props market, where we’re banking on Sampson to find the end zone. He’s scored 22 times already in 2024, and appears mispriced in the anytime TD market at -145.
Tennessee vs Ohio State Prop #3: Dylan Sampson Anytime TD
Sampson has scored in all but one game this season. He still produced 178 yards on 25 carries in that outing, and has accounted for 42% of all Volunteer touchdowns, one of the highest marks in the country.
Yes, the matchup is tough, but with Imaleava in an even worse spot, expect Tennessee to lean on their workhorse whenever they get close. He can also bust a big run to the house, recording at least one 20+ yard run in nine of 12 games this season.
Pick: Dylan Sampson Anytime TD (-145 at ESPN Bet)
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