The James Madison Dukes are 6.5-point road favorites as they visit the Texas State Bobcats
James Madison is seeking his fifth win in a row
See below for my JMU vs Texas State prediction, best bet and odds
The surging James Madison Dukes (6-1, 4-0 Sun Belt) look for their fifth win in a row when they visit the Texas State Bobcats (3-4, 0-3 Sun Belt), who have lost three straight.
The books like the visitors in this one, making them solid road favorites in the college football odds. I believe the favorite is actually undervalued, as I explain in my JMU vs Texas State prediction below.
Kickoff is scheduled for Tuesday at 8pm ET from UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, TX, with ESPN2 carrying the broadcast.
JMU vs Texas State Prediction
I’m backing the favorite to cover the spread for my JMU vs Texas State prediction. Texas State boasts the Sun Belt’s highest scoring offense, averaging a crisp 36.1 points per game.
Unfortunately, the Bobcats are needing to outscore a lot of defensive problems. Lately, that hasn’t been enough, as Texas State has been on the receiving end of three straight shootout losses.
The last two have gone to extra time, losing 48-41 to Troy in OT, and most recently dropping a 40-37 2OT decision to Marshall heading into their bye week.
Now they’ll have to handle the balance of James Madison, one of only two teams in the Sun Belt Conference to rank inside the Top 4 in both scoring offense and defense (Southern Miss being the other).
The Dukes are solid defensively, having allowed a conference-best 15.6 points per game this season, but they’ve also fine-tuned their offense, putting up 32.3 points per contest.
What you get are lopsided efforts. In the Dukes’ last seven games, you’ll see five of their six victories by at least 10 points, while holding teams to under 20 points five times.
James Madison is one of the few teams that can run with Texas State offensively, but they also have the defense to make things hard on the opposition.
JMU vs Texas State Best Bet
Pick: James Madison -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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Given what I outlined in my Tuesday college football prediction above, the JMU Duke to cover 6.5 points is my best bet for Oct. 28.
Texas State’s offense has played well enough — and put up enough points — to come away with more than three straight losses, but this is where we are.
The Bobcats are surrendering 31.3 points per game on the year, and that number has spiked to 39.7 points over the last three games.
James Madison just obliterated Old Dominion 63-27, so they should be able to take advantage of a struggling defense.
JMU vs Texas State: Key Offensive Stats
| Category | JMU | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Total Offense | 432.3 YPG (36th) | 487.9 YPG (9th) |
| Passing Offense | 188.6 YPG (107th) | 257.1 YPG (49th) |
| Rushing Offense | 243.7 YPG (8th) | 230.7 YPG (11th) |
| Scoring Offense | 32.3 PPG (48th) | 36.1 PPG (27th) |
| QB Rating | 133.3 (80th) | 160.9 (18th) |
But JMU is also the Sun Belt’s best defense, allowing just 15.6 points per game. There’s a far less chance of the Bobcats pulling away in this one.
The Dukes are 5-2-0 against the spread in seven games this year, including 2-1 ATS on the road.
Texas State has actually failed to cover the spread in five straight games, and are just 1-1 ATS as a betting underdog.
I think the streaks for both teams stay intact on Tuesday.
JMU vs Texas State Odds
There’s been some movement on the JMU vs Texas State line already, with the spread moving as much as a point in either direction, before most books settled at this 6.5 figure.
James Madison is as short as a -225 favorite on the moneyline, with Texas State as long as +196. The total checks in at 58.5 points.
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