#11 Maryland is a 4.5-point favorite over #22 Michigan in today’s Big Ten Semifinal
The Terrapins are one of the hottest teams in the nation, winning eight of their last nine
See my Maryland vs Michigan Picks, Predictions and Spread, below
The Big Ten tournament rolls on Saturday with a semifinal tilt between #11 Maryland (25-7, 14- 6 Big Ten) and #22 Michigan (23-9, 14-6 Big Ten). Both teams enter fresh off convincing wins, but online sportsbooks are siding with the Terrapins in the latest college basketball odds. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30pm ET at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse, in Indianapolis, IN, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.
Maryland vs Michigan Spread and Odds
| Bet Type | Maryland Terrapins | Michigan Wolverines |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -185 | +154 |
| Spread | -4.5 (-110) | +4.5 (-110) |
| Total | O 150.5 (-108) | U 152.5 (-112) |
Maryland currently a 4.5-point favorite and -185 on the moneyline, while the total is sitting at 150.5. Per the college basketball public betting trends, the Terps have covered in six of their last eight, which includes a win over the Wolverines. Michigan comes back as +154 moneyline underdogs.
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Odds as of March 15 at DraftKings. See the full list of DraftKings legal states.
Maryland vs Michigan Predictions (Big Ten Semifinal)
My predictions for this contest is that Maryland continues its red-hot play. They enter with eight wins in their past nine games, with the lone loss coming on a buzzer-beating heave by #8 Michigan State. The Terrapins have six victories of at least 8 points during this stretch, and just thrashed #24 Illinois 88-65.
Maryland dominated in nearly every facet against the Fighting Illini, and I believe we’ll see a similar outcome Saturday. Offensively, the Terps shots 43% from the field, and 48% from three. They produced seven more assists, and committed only three turnovers, while five players scored in double-figures. That group was led by Rodney Rice with 26, and that kind of balance makes them a legit March Madness odds contender.
At the other end of the floor, Maryland clamped down on Illinois. They held them to 36% from the field, and 22% from three. The Terps forced 17 turnovers, which they converted into 22 points. Maryland is one of the top teams in the nation at creating turnovers, and that came to light in their first meeting with the Wolverines – more on that later.
Maryland vs Michigan Stats
| Stat | Maryland Terrapins | Michigan Wolverines |
|---|---|---|
| Net Rating | +26.60 | +21.64 |
| Offensive Rating | 30th | 43rd |
| Defensive Rating | 6th | 16th |
As for Michigan, they righted the ship in the quarterfinals, for now. The Wolverines beat up on #20 Purdue 88-66, snapping a three-game losing streak. Michigan produced 25 assists and shot 52% from the field. Twin towers Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin combined for 33 points and 19 rebounds, and most importantly they took care of the ball. The Wolverines turned it over just six times, after averaging 14 giveaways per game over their three-game skid.
If Michigan distributes the ball efficiently and doesn’t turn it over they’re going to be a tough out. The problem is, I don’t think that will happen. The Boilermakers defense is far inferior to the Terrapins. Purdue was a bottom-six defense in the Big Ten this season, and ranks 241st in opponent effective field goal percentage. They’re terrible on the defensive glass, they struggle to defend the rim, and they don’t force turnovers. The Wolverines blowout win was product of a good matchup. Saturday’s contest, is just the opposite.
Maryland vs Michigan Picks
Maryland -4.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Which is why my best bet is Maryland -4.5. The Terps force an average of 14 turnovers per game, and produced 16 giveaways from Michigan in their win 10 days ago. Those turnovers led to 21 points, and Maryland also took advantage of the Wolverines poor defensive rebounding. The Terps brought down 11 offensive rebounds, two more than their opponent.
Despite their dominant win against the Boilermakers, Michigan still allowed 14 offensive boards. Their inability to keep teams off the offensive glass, and their propensity for turnovers is going to be their downfall. Throw in the balanced Maryland scoring, plus the Terps suffocating defense, and it all adds up to the Wolverines being in big trouble.
As for trends, they also support my pick. Maryland has covered in eight of its last 13 versus Big Ten opponents. Michigan meanwhile, is 3-13 against the spread in its last 16 games.
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