The #1 Duke Blue Devils are 6.5-point favorites over the #13 Louisville Cardinals in the ACC Tournament Championship
The over/under total has jumped from 143.3 to 147.5, an unusually large four-point increase
See the Louisville vs Duke prediction, pick & odds for tonight’s ACC matchup
The ACC Tournament comes to a close on Saturday as the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils (30-3, 19-1 ACC) clash with the second-seeded Louisville Cardinals (27-6, 18-2 ACC) in the championship game. The Blue Devils will be without star freshman Cooper Flagg, but the college basketball odds still favor Duke by 6.5 points.
Tip-off for this ACC title tilt is scheduled for 8:30pm ET at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC. ESPN will provide the television coverage.
Louisville vs Duke Prediction
With Flagg sidelined, I expect Louisville to keep this game competitive and potentially pull off the upset. The Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in the nation, having won 11 straight games and 21 of their last 22 overall. Per KenPom, Louisville boasts the nation’s 27th most efficient offense and pairs that with a top-25 defense that surrenders just 95.6 points per 100 possessions.
The Cardinals are led by senior guard Chucky Hepburn, who averages 16.4 points, 5.9 assists and 2.4 steals per game. Hepburn has been instrumental in Louisville’s ACC Tournament run, posting 20 points and 8 assists in the quarterfinals versus Stanford before tallying 12 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists and 6 steals in the semifinal win over Clemson.
CHUCKY HEPBURN WINS IT AT THE BUZZER 🔥🔥@LouisvilleMBB SURVIVES
(via @accnetwork)
pic.twitter.com/KhCovec7Gv
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 14, 2025
Louisville’s supporting cast is also impressive, with three other players averaging double-figures scoring. Senior J’Vonne Hadley anchors the Cardinals’ frontcourt, averaging 12.1 points and a team-high 7.3 rebounds. The Cardinals play at a faster-adjusted tempo than Duke (69.1 possessions per game compared to 66.1 for the Blue Devils) and could exploit a thin Duke rotation missing Flagg and reserve big man Maliq Brown.
Even without Flagg, Duke still presents a formidable challenge. The Blue Devils rank 1st in KenPom’s overall ratings thanks to the nation’s 2nd most efficient offense (128.1 points per 100 possessions) and 4th stingiest defense (90.0). Freshman prodigy Kon Knueppel has capably stepped up in Flagg’s absence, pouring in 28 points in the quarterfinal win over Georgia Tech before posting 17 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists versus North Carolina.
However, the Tar Heels exposed some of Duke’s vulnerabilities without Flagg, storming back from a 24-point second half deficit and nearly pulling off the upset.
The Blue Devils also don’t have quite the same motivation as Louisville, having already secured the ACC regular season title and a likely No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament odds. I’m banking on the desperate Cardinals to rise to the occasion and at least keep this one within the spread.
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